EM Daily Focus
Spain: Anti-government protests reflect the deepening polarization
By Padmashree Anandhan 

On 21 January, a mass protest was carried out by people in Spain demanding the step down of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez. The gathering was led by “right-leaning civil society groups” with the support of the center-right Popular Party and the far-right Vox party.  The protestors held sign boards that said: “Sanchez, resign!" and “traitor,” reflecting the angst on the government as the general elections are expected to be held in May.

Protestors claimed the government’s decision to agree to the demand of Catalan secessionists in appointing a person to mediate talks between the “pro-unity and pro-independence parties” as a betrayal. In line with the protestors, the current regional parties have rejected the move and called for an independence vote.

Three issues
First, the nature of protests. Protest against the national government has been frequent in the last five years, but the demands have centered around the Catalonian community. The first set of protests called the “Madrid demonstration” was against gender violence when a Catalan court dismissed a guilty without charges. Followed by a series of Catalan protests to revive the independence movement and against the sentence of the nine separatist leaders. At present both issues are being highlighted by far-right and right-party groups to stage protests against the government. While the protest does seem political as the elections near, there is a limited amount of discontent amongst the conservative section of the public against Sanchez for not addressing the gap in the health sector, employment, and economic crisis.

Second, continuing political polarization. Single-party governments have been the norm of Spain since 1982 until the Conservative People’s Party (PP) leader Rajoy was replaced by the Socialist party leader Sanchez. Although the change was quick, the continuity of the Socialist party has not been easy. The party has suffered to gain support from the radical-left party Podemos, right of center party Ciudadanos to form a coalition government, which had never occurred since democracy was established in 1977. In the progress of cutting down the differences with the existing parties to form a coalition, a series of four elections gave way for 16 parties into the congress. This took place due to a loss of confidence amongst the public over the party’s incapacity to form a government and address the issue of budget reform, reform of the law on sexual consent, and illegal immigration. The far-right party, Vox, and the PP focused on these issues resulting in a vote gain of 15 per cent additionally in the November 2020 elections and triggering the protests. The rise of the far-right and recovery of the PP created pressure for the Socialists and Podemos to unite, but it is not enough to have a majority to pass any legislation in the parliament. This led Sanchez to get close to Esquerra Republicana (One of the Catalonia’s secessionist parties) for support in the parliament. Therefore, the two-split in Spain’s political system is expected to worsen.

Third, the challenge over Catalonia. The ousting of the conservative party leader was due to the crisis in Catalonia and the issue of the spread of the separatist movement has been the base for the split in Spain’s political scenario. In 2017, when Catalonia held an illegal referendum for independence sparked fear as they saw it as a threat to Spanish nationalism. When the Supreme court sentenced nine leaders of the separatist organization of Catalonia for using their resources to “declare an independent republic,” led to mass protests amongst the community. While Sanchez maintains a stance to have a dialogue to settle the issue between the regional leader of Catalonia, the threat to Spanish nationalism has taken the center of the far-right party’s agenda. Its focus to address illegal migration and separatism has helped gain support from the public but to gain a majority in the parliament it would need the support of the Conservatives. This has furthered with the national government stepping to replace the conservative majority judiciary to reform the sedition law, becoming the key reason behind the protests and a political deadlock for the 2023 elections.

What next?
The political chaos furthers the polarization. On one hand, while Sanchez presents the idea of dialogue to settle the Catalonian issue, it seems to aggravate the influence of the Right party which has been aiming to devour through the difference to gain power. In such a scenario, the far right would still require the support of the conservative party to form a coalition, which seems to be fluid as both play for power. While Sanchez has to an extent excelled in sustaining the coalition government, faces a more complex situation without a majority to pass legislation on reforming the sedition and judiciary laws. Whether the winner of the 2023 elections is center left or center right, the polarization can be expected to further with the worsening fragmentation within the parties.

References
“Spain: Thousands stage anti-government protest in Madrid,” Deutsche Welle, 21 Januaru 2023
“A change of government in Spain is likely but not inevitable in 2023,” The Economist, 18 November 2022
Daniel Dombey and Ian Mount, “Spain’s moneyed classes step up anti-government protests,” FT, 20 May 2020
“Catalan nationalists protest as their leaders are jailed for sedition,” The Economist, 14 October 2019
“Pedro Sánchez again falls short of a majority in Spain’s election,” The Economist, 14 November 2019
Bjarke Smith-Meyer, “Tens of thousands protest Spanish PM’s Catalan policy,” Politico.eu, 10 February 2019
“Spain’s new prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, assembles a reassuring team,” The Economist, 07 June 2018

War in Ukraine: Day 336
By Padmashree Anandhan 

War on the Ground
On 25 January, the Ukraine military spokesperson announced the decision on withdrawal of defence force from Soledar to protect the lives of the “service personnel.” Russia’s claims of capturing Soledar was initially denied by Ukraine’s troops has now withdrawn.

On 25 January, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported on the meeting with the UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi. Establishing access to Ukrainians deported into Russia, protection of refugee rights, and “criminal deportation” were the key topics discussed during the meeting. Zelenskyy reported on close to two million Ukrainians have been forcefully deported.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 25 January, the Russian Defence Ministry released a statement on the Zircon missile (hypersonic) test. In the statement, the Ministry reported that the test was carried out at 900 kilometers distance in the Atlantic Ocean.

On 25 January, RT reported on the French sportswear Decathlon suspension of the supply of goods to Russia upon EU’s sanctions. This has led the company to search for buyers to sell Russian assets. This includes 20 buildings, warehouse spaces, and land plots worth 15 billion Rubles. Selling such assets would require approval from the subcommittee of Russia’s Ministry of Finance, which recently passed a rule to bar the withdrawal of such funds.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 
On 25 January, Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced the decision to provide 14 Leopard 2A6 main battle tanks to Ukraine. This also grants other European countries to send similar tanks to Ukraine and training of the Ukrainian troops. He said: “I need to explicitly say; it was right and it keeps on being right not to have been pushed forward but to have waited for international cooperation to take place.” In response, Zelenskyy thanked for the support, while Russia’s Dimitry Peskov condemned the move: “Bring nothing good to the future relationship.” The decision was greeted by Latvia’s President Egils Levits: “And if we have an aggressive neighbour, it is natural that we are increasing our defense capabilities.” Along with Latvia, NATO, the UK, and France welcomed Germany’s move. Spain and Norway have expressed consent to provide Leopard 2A4 and Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.

On 25 January, US President Joe Biden announced similar to Germany to provide 31 M1 Abrams battle tanks to Ukraine.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 25 January, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) confirmed taking steps to include athletes from Russia and Belarus to take part in the 2024 Paris Games. In a statement: “No athlete should be prevented from competing just because of their passport.” The IOC President on the same lines said that due to war, sports cannot be politicized.

On 25 January, UNESCO relooked into the proceedings to categorize the historic center of Odesa as “endangered” World Heritage Site. Such classification will help the city to receive assistance to protect the site and maintain the area. This is due to the increased attacks of Russia on the cultural center of the Black Sea.

References 
“Zelensky meets with UN High Commissioner for Refugees,” Ukrinform, 25 January 2023
“French sportswear retailer selling Russian business – RBK,” RT, 25 January 2023
“Russian Frigate Admiral Gorshkov Test-Fires Zircon Missile in Atlantic: Video,” Sputnik, 25 January 2023
“Ukraine updates: Germany approves sending of Leopard 2 tanks,” Deutsche Welle, 25 January 2023  

IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
Kristo forms state-level coalition government months after elections 
On 25 January, Bosnia and Herzegovina formed a state-level government led by Chairwoman Borjana Kristo. Her Council of Ministers received the support of  23 out of 42 members of the House of Representatives. The nine Council of Ministers led by Kristo represents the state-level coalition in the House of Representatives which includes the Bosnian Serb party, the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats, SNSD, the HDZ, and six parties from the Osmorka group. Kristo belongs to the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) designated as President. The Council earlier received criticism from other parties for its lack of gender equality as only two women are a part of the Council. (Azem Kurtic “Bosnia Finally Forms State-Level Government,” Balkan Insight, 25 January 2023)   

ITALY
Gas station workers hold strikes upon failure to reach consensus with the government 
On 25 January, gas station workers belonging to FAIB, FEGICA, and FIGISC gas unions staged a walkout after failing to reach a consensus with the government. The workers of the FEGICA and FIGISC unions staged a 48-hour strike whereas FAIB workers staged a 24-hour strike. This comes as the Italian government withdrew discounts on gas prices and put forth a transparency policy to prevent “speculation in prices.” The unions objected to this as the latter clause could lead to a clash between gas stations and customers. (Baris Seckin “Italy's gas station workers go on strike,” Anadolu Agency, 25 January 2023)   

SLOVAKIA 
Parliament amends the constitution to allow early elections 
On 25 January, Slovakian Parliament introduced amendments to the constitution to hold early elections. The amendment was passed by 92 lawmakers. The new amendment allows Slovakia to hold snap elections if the motion is passed with a three-fifths majority in the National Council. This allows the Council to decide on a possible election date after Prime Minister Eduard Heger’s government lost the no-confidence vote in December 2022. (“Slovakia parliament changes constitution to enable snap vote,” Independent.co.uk, 25 January 2023)  

THE UK 
Hundreds Albanian children missing from asylum centres 
On 25 January, the UK Home Office Parliamentary Under Secretary of State Simon Murray stated that out of 200 missing migrant children 88 per cent of them are Albanian. This comes as UK Interior Minister Robert Jenrick informed the parliament that since 2021 4,600 child asylum seekers had arrived in the UK out of which 440 had gone missing and only half had returned. Murray added: “The Home Office have no power to detain unaccompanied asylum-seeking children in these hotels, and we do know that some of them go missing,” and that many are traced and found later.  This drew criticism from NGOs who questioned the lack of action by the government and authorities over this issue. Stand For All, a human rights advocacy organization, Director Daniel Sohege said: “The [UK] government has done nothing but attack Albanians, ignoring how Albanian young people are one of the most at-risk groups of child trafficking.” The Child Rights Centre in Albania (CRCA) criticized the government saying that it is obligated under international law to protect unaccompanied children and added: “One has to wonder if this lack of care and responsibility comes from the fact that they are foreign children.” (Fjori Sinoruka “Concerns Grow About Albanian Children Missing in UK,” Balkan Insight, 25 January 2023; Alice Taylor “UK government lost 176 Albanian child asylum seekers, didn’t notify Tirana,” EURACTIV, 25 January 2023)  

REGIONAL 
Finland approves first commercial military material exports to Turkey
On 25 January, Finalnds Defence Ministry stated that it had approved the first commercial military material exports license since 2019 to Turkey. The Defence Ministry’s Special adviser Riikka Pitkanen outlined that the licence issued was for steel used in armour making. The issue of licences was one of the demands of Turkey for it to ratify Finland’s NATO bid. (“Finland OKs 1st military exports to Türkiye since 2019 amid NATO row,” Daily Sabah, 25 January 2023)  

INTERNATIONAL
EU proposes 70 projects to combat China’s BRI
On 23 January, the EU announced the Global Gateway project which acts as a counter to China’s Belt and Road initiative. The new initiative includes 70 projects of which the first one is to lay an optical fibre cable under the Black Sea which connects North African and Mediterranean countries. It also includes a dam and hydroelectric plant in Cameroon. The EU aims to mobilize over EUR 300 billion from public and private funders by 2027 to fund EU projects abroad. Some of the other projects include an energy transition in Indonesia, a hydrogen project in Kazakhstan, a transport link in Central Asia and a digital connectivity project in the Philippines. (Barbara Moens “EU lines up 70 projects to rival China’s Belt and Road infrastructure spending,” Politico, 23 January 2023) 

French troops to leave Burkina Faso within a month 
On 25 January, the French Foreign Ministry announced that French forces would be leaving Burkina Faso within a month. This comes as Burkina Faso submitted a formal denunciation to the French government which outlined a request for the withdrawal of French troops from the country. The ministry referred to a 2018 agreement between the two countries and said: “the termination takes effect a month after reception of written notification. We will respect the terms of the agreement by honoring this request.” The 400 troops deployed in Burkina Faso are said to withdraw by the end of February. (“France to 'respect' Burkina Faso's request and pull troops,” Deutsche Welle, 25 January 2023)

FASHION
Paris Fashion Week draws criticism and praise
On 25 January, Deutsche Welle reported that at the Paris Fashion Week, Schiaparell’s show drew criticism and praise over its dress which featured life-like animal heads. While Schiaparelli had issued a statement saying that they were made from “foam, wool and silk faux fur and hand painted to look as life-like as possible,” many criticised it saying that it promoted trophy hunting. It also received praise from PETA President Ingrid Newkirk calling it innovative and adding: “may be a statement against trophy hunting, in which lion families are torn apart to satisfy human egotism.” At Dior’s show, the designers paid tribute to Josephine Baker, an African-American woman with dresses reflecting the style from the 1920s to the 1950s. The show also included 13 blow-up portraits of famous African-American women in the industry. Apart from the dresses, Louis-Gabriel Nouchi’s show made a political statement with a model walking the runway with a sign that read “Stop the executions in Iran.” (Brenda Haas “Paris Fashion Week: What everybody is talking about,” Deutsche Welle, 25 January 2023)